How do we reduce fossil fuels?
In the last article we explored global fossil fuel consumption and how it relates to the goals in Laudato Si’. If our goal is to reduce or eliminate fossil fuel usage, how will we accomplish it?
On the surface, anyone can see that this is a huge challenge, since oil, gas and coal have been the foundation of global energy production for decades. Our world has a rapidly growing demand for energy, and we have no sufficient alternatives to fossil fuels today. We must begin by acknowledging that this is a major undertaking for humanity, and not minimize or downplay its difficulty.
Fortunately, there is a major effort by scientists and government leaders around the world to develop the plans we need.
Scientific research has been focused on the challenges of climate change for many years across many disciplines. The United Nations has been an aggregator of this global research initiative and a focal point for global political discussions on climate. A healthy dialogue is underway between scientists and policymakers about how to move forward with solutions. This analysis gives us an accurate picture of what fossil fuel reduction must look like in coming decades.
A good summary of global requirements was published in Nature in 2023. If we are to achieve the global warming target of 1.5 degrees C set in Glasgow’s 2021 COP conference, by 2050 we must reduce global coal usage by 95%, oil by 62%, and natural gas by 42%. (1) These numbers are based on analysis of energy consumption models from many different research groups. These models are complex and make many assumptions, but this gives us a sense of the magnitude of the changes we are facing. These models generally consider the following factors: (2)
1. Phasing out fossil fuels in the energy, building, transport, and industrial sectors
2. Transforming agricultural and land-use practices
3. Reducing energy and material consumption
4. Relying on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment
The report also states “Non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane and other short-lived climate forcers also influence the level of peak warming, and their emissions reductions are another important mitigation lever.” (3)
Carbon removal and capture technologies are new and unproven and are the subject of extensive debate. The report states “the feasibility of large-scale CDR and CCS deployment remains highly uncertain, with growing concerns that we would be locking in continued fossil fuel dependence and global temperature increases above 2 °C if they were to fail.” (4) The fossil fuel industry and their backers are promoting these technologies as a means to slow the speed at which we reduce our consumption.
At a high level, these models give us guidance about what we need to do to reduce fossil fuel consumption, called mitigation strategies. These include: (5)
Elimination of coal use by 2035-2040, primarily in energy production
Migrate energy production to renewable sources and nuclear power
Change transportation fleets through vehicle electrification, more flexible transit systems, and reduced freight volumes
Energy efficiency initiatives for buildings
Carbon removal and sequestration through agriculture, forestry and land use methods
Reducing oil, gas and coal production to targets set by climate policy
In practical terms, these strategies call for dramatic action. Power production with coal needs to stop within the next 15 years. This implies that coal mining also needs to stop by then. Some climate models assume that the coal, oil, and gas will be left unextracted in the ground: extracting it contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. A large fraction of global energy production needs to be from renewable sources or nuclear power twenty-five years from now.
Our homes and commercial buildings need to be more efficient and more electrified. They must consume less energy through better insulation and more efficient appliances and lighting. Our personal mobility must change: our cars must be electric, along with our recreational vehicles and motorcycles. Almost everything with a gas engine today needs to be powered by electricity. Travel services must change dramatically, with more use of electric trains, public transportation, and personal mobility options such as bicycles. Aviation is a critical part of our economy, with no clear path away from fossil fuels, but this must also change. Everyone must consider their personal hobbies and activities in light of their energy consumption. These are changes that affect the lifestyles of everyone on the planet, especially those in developed countries.
The freight transportation industry is a major user of fossil fuels in shipping, rail, and trucking. Freight shipment must migrate to renewable power sources. Highways in the United States are filled with trucks today, moving goods from one place to another. We need to redesign our system for moving freight to minimize energy consumption and eliminate fossil fuels. Many pilot projects are under way in this area for electric trucks, wind-assisted ships, and electric rail.
Agriculture and land management must move away from fertilizers and other products derived from fossil fuels. Tractors and other farm equipment must be electrified. Reforestation projects around the world are intended to sequester carbon and are an important factor in our climate response.
Perhaps most importantly, we need to begin limiting production of fossil fuels and align production targets to match our climate goals. This is not happening today in the United States and other major producers, where new extraction projects, pipelines, and fuel shipping projects are still launching. As the largest producer of fossil fuels in the world today, the United States has an obligation to lead in ramping down production. This is a major political and economic challenge for us. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and hundreds of other companies form one of the largest sectors of the US economy. They are responsible for hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US. Their managers and workers are our friends and neighbors. Most US citizens own stock in them through their retirement plans. We cannot look at them as giant, evil corporations bent on world destruction. We must see them as partners in a great enterprise and set government policies to transition this economic sector to align with the new realities we face. This is a situation where Laudato Si’s call for encounter and dialogue is critically important.
I have assembled this summary because I do not see it in our public discourse today. Environmentalists talk about eliminating fossil fuels without presenting a persuasive plan to do so, while demonizing the companies and people that oppose them. Supporters of the status quo deny the reality of the climate crisis or insist that there is nothing we can do about it, while demonizing those that think differently. Neither approach will lead us to a solution. We need to develop a shared perspective grounded in reality and science.
Digging into the details, we can see the great scope of the changes that we must make in the next 25 years. Can we accomplish it? We can if we are united on common goals, and if we stay hopeful. Our hope is in God’s mercy and closeness to us, and his desire to save his creation. God requires our cooperation. Our unity will come through healthy dialogue between people who disagree about these policies. Everyone shares an interest in caring for our common home, and everyone has the same dignity before God. These are our starting points for discussion.
Every city-destroying hurricane, every extreme wildfire, every deadly heat wave will convince more people that something must be done. Some will despair, and we must be their messengers of hope. Most people already recognize the changes that are happening. The disagreements are primarily on what actions we should take. We have a moral obligation to take action, before God and for the sake of future generations. We must be hopeful that we can make the changes required of us, and trust that in the process we will make the world a better place for ourselves and the generations that follow us. This is the great moral task of our time, and we must face it with courage. This is the message of Pope Francis and the Catholic faith in Laudato Si’.
Notes
(1) Achakulwisut, P., Erickson, P., Guivarch, C. et al. Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions. Nat Commun 14, 5425 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z
(2) Ibid.
(3) Ibid.
(4) Ibid.
(5) Ibid.